The Crisis Decision Curve: Why Day 5 Determines Survival

Aug 12

In most corporate crises, everyone talks about the first 24 hours.

However, the truth from real turnaround research is this: it’s what happens by Day 5 that determines your odds of recovery.

A 2020 European SME crisis management study tracked 312 companies through financial and operational shocks.

The survival rates were clear:

Decisive action within 5 days of the first crisis signal doubled the probability of recovery.
Waiting beyond 10 days cut survival odds by more than half, even when the same actions were eventually taken.
The most damaging delay? Boards that spent the first week gathering “more data” instead of acting on what they already knew.

This isn’t just about speed. It’s about the type of decisions made in that first week.

By Day 5, the boards that beat the odds had already:

Named the crisis leader: one clear decision-maker with authority to act.
Protected liquidity: froze non-essential spend and secured short-term cash buffers.
Launched an external diagnostic to get unbiased visibility into the true problem scope.

Boards that skipped or delayed any of these saw a steep drop in recovery rates.

From my work with boards and investors, the delays usually come from:

But markets and creditors don’t wait for alignment.

The curve shows three phases:

The takeaway: Crisis management is not a marathon.

The clock isn’t just ticking, it’s cutting your odds with every day you wait.

💬 Boardroom question: If your company faced a shock tomorrow, could you make all three high-impact decisions before Day 5?

Kenneth Dalsgaard

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